Recently the government has proposed a plan to put 1.4 million more homes in Auckland. What do you think is a reasonable level of growth for the city?
Auckland has about 1.8M people and 550k–610k dwellings. Phased intensification that unlocks zones as infrastructure arrives offers the best path.
Q.5.1 — Intensification
Recently the government has proposed a plan to put 1.4 million more homes in Auckland. What do you think is a reasonable level of growth for the city?
Auckland today sits at roughly 1.8 million people and between 550,000 and 610,000 dwellings. The revised Plan Change 120 lowered the minimum theoretical housing capacity to around 1.4 million dwellings (with actual enabled capacity closer to 1.6 million once transport corridors are factored in). Recent consenting rates of around 15,000 homes per year show the market can respond when settings allow.
A more robust approach lies in targeted intensification zones calibrated to current and planned infrastructure capacity — shifting from rigid city-wide targets toward a phased, investment-led strategy. As funding becomes available for upgrades, specific precincts can be progressively opened up for intensification. This "as-ready" model avoids premature rezoning that leads to gridlock, strained services, and community backlash, turning infrastructure investment into the enabler of growth rather than an afterthought.
A steady 1–1.5% annual population increase — roughly 18,000 to 27,000 new residents each year — matches Auckland's role as New Zealand's economic powerhouse while keeping pace with historical trends.
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Written by Mark Pervan, Director, City Builders Association Limited
Mark Pervan is the founder and director of City Builders Association Limited, an Auckland civic think tank funded solely by membership. He has run manufacturing plants, with global sourcing and supply chain management in the same role, and has been project manager on multiple commercial and residential building projects. He was also responsible for product design and development across multiple mediums, and served as sales and marketing manager. He is a company director and business owner, including as a director of Idea Foundry. He served three years as an elected member of the Puketāpapa Local Board (2022–2025) and was a council candidate for the Albert-Eden-Puketāpapa ward of Auckland Council.
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